Washington (Elway Poll) - Obama 47%, McCain 35%……. Obama +12
Florida (PPP (D)) - McCain 47%, Obama 44%……. McCain +3
New York (Quinnipiac) - Obama 57%, McCain 36%……. Obama +21
Oregon (SurveyUSA) - Obama 48%, McCain 45%……. Obama +3
Wisconsin (WPRI) - Obama 44%, McCain 38%……. Obama +6
New Jersey (Rasmussen) - Obama 52%, McCain 42%……. Obama +10
New York (Rasmussen) - Obama 55%, McCain 36%……. Obama +19
Alabama (AEA/Capital Survey) - McCain 47%, Obama 34%……. McCain +13
Massachusetts (Rasmussen) - Obama 54%, McCain 38%……. Obama +16
Wisconsin (Rasmussen) - Obama 51%, McCain 44%……. Obama +7
Washington (Rasmussen) - Obama 54%, McCain 42%……. Obama +12
Missouri (Rasmussen) - McCain 50%, Obama 44%……. McCain +6
Michigan (Rasmussen) - Obama 49%, McCain 45%……. Obama +4
Colorado (PPP (D)) - Obama 48%, McCain 44%……. Obama +4
Oregon (Rasmussen) - Obama 52%, McCain 42.%…… Obama +10
Iowa (Rasmussen) - Obama 49%, McCain 44%……. Obama +5
Virginia (SurveyUSA) - Obama 47,% McCain 48.%…… McCain +1
Kentucky (SurveyUSA) - McCain 55,% Obama 37%……. McCain +18

The title says it all. My analysis this week is very simple: nothing’s changed. Virginia is still a true battle ground state showing a near tie in the most recent round of polls. All the other states haven’t changed much at all.

Out PhotoGalleries are BACK!! It’s not perfect, but it’ll work for now. I hope to have it integrated with the blog as time permits me to work on it.

Virginia (PPP (D)) - Obama 46%, McCain 44%……. +2.0
Colorado (Rasmussen ) - Obama 50%, McCain 47%……. Obama +3.0
Florida (Rasmussen) - McCain 47%, Obama 49%……. Obama +2.0
Colorado (Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP) - Obama 44%, McCain 46%……. McCain +2.0
Michigan (Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP) - Obama 46%, McCain 42%……. Obama +4.0
Wisconsin (Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP) - Obama 50%, McCain 39%……. Obama +11.0
Minnesota (Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP) - Obama 46%, McCain 44%……. Obama +2.0
Minnesota (Rasmussen) - Obama 52%, McCain 39%……. Obama +13.0
New Jersey (Monmouth Univ.) - Obama 48%, McCain 34%……. Obama +14.0
South Carolina (Research 2000) - McCain 53%, Obama 40%……. McCain +13.0
New Hampshire (Rasmussen) - Obama 49%, McCain 45%……. Obama +4.0
Pennsylvania (Rasmussen) - Obama 51%, McCain 45%……. Obama +6.0
New Mexico (Rasmussen) - Obama 49%, McCain 43%……. Obama +6.0
California (Rasmussen) - Obama 52%, McCain 42%……. Obama +10.0
Mississippi (Research 2000) - McCain 51%, Obama 42%……. McCain +9.0
North Dakota (Research 2000) - McCain 45%, Obama 42%……. McCain +3.0
North Carolina (PPP (D)) - McCain 47%, Obama 44%…….McCain +3.0

Penn is an interesing survey. The Rasmussen poll shows Obama +6 and the Strategic Vision poll shows Obama +9. In 2004, Rasmusseen polls tended to lean in favor of democrats compared to final results and Strategic Vision tended to lean in favor of republicans compared to final results. So, what does this say? Both polls show a strong favor towards Obama. PA might be a lock for Obama.

I am throwing the “Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP” polls out for the time being. 2 of them were way off compared to past polling and other polls conducted at the same time. Note Minnesota where one polls says Obama is up 13, but the Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP poll says he’s only up 2. And, the Colorado poll is also a little off. No poll in recent months has shown McCain AHEAD in Colorado, so I have doubts about that one.

TV’s Craig Furguson:

Barack Obama gave a speech in Germany today in front of 200,000 German people.  They were shouting and screaming. Apparently France surrendered just in case.

Unknown Source:

“So did you hear about Obama’s trip to the Middle East? Apparently he visited the manger where he was born.”

Alabama (AEA/Capital Survey) - McCain 49%, Obama 36%
Kansas (TargetPoint (R)) - McCain 49%, Obama 36%
Missouri (PPP (D)) - McCain 47%; Obama 44%
Missouri (Rasmussen) - McCain 47%; Obama 42%
New Jersey (Rasmussen) - Obama 44%, McCain 39%
Maine (Pan Atlantic SMS) - Obama 37%, McCain 26%
Illinois (Rasmussen) - Obama 52%, McCain 41%
North Dakota (Rasmussen) - McCain 47%, Obama 46%
Wisconsin (Rasmussen) - Obama 52%, McCain 42%
Washington (Rasmussen) - Obama 51%, McCain 43%
Missouri (Research 2000) - McCain 43%, Obama 48%
Louisiana (Rasmussen) - McCain 56%, Obama 37%
Colorado (PPP (D)) - Obama 47%, McCain 43%
Michigan (Rasmussen) - Obama 50%, McCain 42%
South Dakota (Rasmussen) - McCain 47%, Obama 43%
Minnesota (Rasmussen) - Obama 54%, McCain 37%
Iowa (Rasmussen) - Obama 51%, McCain 41%

In the movie Signs, the famous line is “Swing away, Merrill.” So, why did I choose this line for today?s theme? Simple… it works on two levels.

1) The trend in polls of key swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa is Obama pulling AWAY in SWING states. These states need to be in Obama’s column for a win in November. In another swing state like Colorado, he has a marginal lead, but it’s been fairly constant at around 5 points.
2) Obama is going to “swing away” at states he should not win, but might! Polling shows he’s got a shot. Look at North Dakota (McCain +1) and South Dakota (McCain +4). South Dakota has voted republican in every presidential election since 1968 and only voted Democrat once since 1940! North Dakota is exactly the same. In 2004, George Bush won South Dakota by 21.47%.

This Week in Polls (July 2nd-8th)

It seems like the 4th of July weekend slowed down polling between July 3rd and July 9th. So, most of these polls were released Wednesday and Thursday of last week. Any impact of the Iraq “refinement” feud would not be shown here. However, the nation wide tracking polls have shown no change.

Lousiana (Southern Media & Opinion Research) McCain 52%; Obama 36%
Connecticut (Quinnipiac) – Obama 56%; McCain 35%
Gerogia (Strategic Vision) – McCain 51%; Obama 43%; Barr 3%
Florida (Strategic Vision) – McCain 49%; Obama 41%
Massachusetts (Rasmussen) – Obama 53%; McCain 33%
Connecticut (Rasmussen) – Obama 52%; McCain 35%
Rhode Island (Rhode Island College) – Obama 53%; McCain 25%
Connecticut (Research 2000) - Obama 57%; McCain 35%
New York (Rasmussen) - Obama 60%; McCain 29%
Montana (Rasmussen) – Obama 48%; McCain 43%
Washington (Strategies 360) - Obama 47%; McCain 39%
Georgia (InAdv/PollPosition) - McCain 46%; Obama 44%; Barr (L) 4
Rhode Island (Rasmussen) - Obama 55%; McCain 31%

The only major point from this weeks polls is Montana. All the other polls seem to be par for the course. Montana, though, is a bit interesting. It’s a complete and exact reversal of a month ago. What does this mean? I have no idea.  Rasmussen is on my “use with caution” list, so it could just be a bad poll or an outlier. Only time will tell.

Ok, with the officially released polls out of the way, here is the major story of the week to me. Zogby just released a 21 day long polling of all 50 states (or so they say, some states have no data).

Here’s the basics: Obama wins 273-160 with 105 too close to call.
Here’s the big deal: Bob Barr. According to their polls, he pulls anywhere from 4-9% in KEY states including Nevada, Arizona, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Missouri, Ohio, and Indiana. According to their polls in those states, Obama wins thanks to Bob Barr. In some of these swing states, 1 or 2 percent could swing the state one way or the other. Barr pulling 5% is a MAJOR deal.

Key a CLOSE eye on Bob Barr. He very well could be the Ross Perot of 2008.

118 Days Until Election Day

A more detailed explanation:
PickensPlan.com

I am going to do one blog post a week on every Wednesday for the previous 7 days worth of presidential poll data. This will also include a quick analysis on that weeks data and maybe RealClearPolitics map of the Electoral college.

This Week in Polls (June 26th-July 1st)

Missouri (SurveyUSA) – McCain 50%; Obama 43%
Tennessee (Rasmussen) – McCain 51%; Obama 36%
New Jersey (Fairleigh Dickinson) – Obama 49%; McCain 33%
Ohio (SurveyUSA) – Obama 48%; McCain 46%
Mississippi (Rasmussen) – McCain 50%; Obama 44%
Texas (Rasmussen) – McCain 48%; Obama 39%
Arizona (Rasmussen) – McCain 49%; Obama 40%
Virginia (SurveyUSA) – Obama 49%; McCain 47%
Massachusetts (SurveyUSA) – Obama 53%; McCain 40%
Georgia (Rasmussen) – McCain 53%; Obama 43%
New York (SurveyUSA) – Obama 57%; McCain 37%
Alabama (Rasmussen) – McCain 51%; Obama 36%
North Carolina (PPP) – McCain 45%; Obama 41%
Florida (Rasmussen) – McCain 48%; Obama 41%
Florida (PPP) – Obama 46%; McCain 44%

I was wholly impressed by SurveyUSA’s primary results so I have been following them closest. In May, SurveyUSA did a round of polls and towards the end of June did another round of many of the same states. From what I have seen, McCain has closed on Obama on many of the swing states, but what’s of note is that Obama hasnt moved, and in a few cases actually gained a few percentage points. But, McCain picked up the “undecided” votes in large quantities. In many of the polls it was 10+% undecided in May, but in June it is 5% or less and McCain gained most of those.

What does this say? I am not sure. Obama’s base seems strong, but he NEEDS those undecideds. If he can even pull 3 or 4% of those undecideds back away from McCain, Obama could be in for a landslide victory in November.

Based on the polls I have seen, McCain has made little or no ground on “blue states”, but Obama is making it VERY close or ahead in many “red states” (Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada, Colorado). McCain is kind of close in Michigan, but it’s tenuous at best.

States to keep a close watch on:
Virgina is very close and would “change the map”, as is North Carolina
Also keep an eye on Ohio. It’s close, but Obama doesnt need it to win. A win in Ohio, makes it almost impossible for McCain.

All Aboard… the Flip-Flop Express!!