I am going to do one blog post a week on every Wednesday for the previous 7 days worth of presidential poll data. This will also include a quick analysis on that weeks data and maybe RealClearPolitics map of the Electoral college.
This Week in Polls (June 26th-July 1st)
Missouri (SurveyUSA) – McCain 50%; Obama 43%
Tennessee (Rasmussen) – McCain 51%; Obama 36%
New Jersey (Fairleigh Dickinson) – Obama 49%; McCain 33%
Ohio (SurveyUSA) – Obama 48%; McCain 46%
Mississippi (Rasmussen) – McCain 50%; Obama 44%
Texas (Rasmussen) – McCain 48%; Obama 39%
Arizona (Rasmussen) – McCain 49%; Obama 40%
Virginia (SurveyUSA) – Obama 49%; McCain 47%
Massachusetts (SurveyUSA) – Obama 53%; McCain 40%
Georgia (Rasmussen) – McCain 53%; Obama 43%
New York (SurveyUSA) – Obama 57%; McCain 37%
Alabama (Rasmussen) – McCain 51%; Obama 36%
North Carolina (PPP) – McCain 45%; Obama 41%
Florida (Rasmussen) – McCain 48%; Obama 41%
Florida (PPP) – Obama 46%; McCain 44%
I was wholly impressed by SurveyUSA’s primary results so I have been following them closest. In May, SurveyUSA did a round of polls and towards the end of June did another round of many of the same states. From what I have seen, McCain has closed on Obama on many of the swing states, but what’s of note is that Obama hasnt moved, and in a few cases actually gained a few percentage points. But, McCain picked up the “undecided” votes in large quantities. In many of the polls it was 10+% undecided in May, but in June it is 5% or less and McCain gained most of those.
What does this say? I am not sure. Obama’s base seems strong, but he NEEDS those undecideds. If he can even pull 3 or 4% of those undecideds back away from McCain, Obama could be in for a landslide victory in November.
Based on the polls I have seen, McCain has made little or no ground on “blue states”, but Obama is making it VERY close or ahead in many “red states” (Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada, Colorado). McCain is kind of close in Michigan, but it’s tenuous at best.
States to keep a close watch on:
Virgina is very close and would “change the map”, as is North Carolina
Also keep an eye on Ohio. It’s close, but Obama doesnt need it to win. A win in Ohio, makes it almost impossible for McCain.
