Alabama (AEA/Capital Survey) – McCain 49%, Obama 36%
Kansas (TargetPoint (R)) – McCain 49%, Obama 36%
Missouri (PPP (D)) – McCain 47%; Obama 44%
Missouri (Rasmussen) – McCain 47%; Obama 42%
New Jersey (Rasmussen) – Obama 44%, McCain 39%
Maine (Pan Atlantic SMS) – Obama 37%, McCain 26%
Illinois (Rasmussen) – Obama 52%, McCain 41%
North Dakota (Rasmussen) – McCain 47%, Obama 46%
Wisconsin (Rasmussen) – Obama 52%, McCain 42%
Washington (Rasmussen) – Obama 51%, McCain 43%
Missouri (Research 2000) – McCain 43%, Obama 48%
Louisiana (Rasmussen) – McCain 56%, Obama 37%
Colorado (PPP (D)) – Obama 47%, McCain 43%
Michigan (Rasmussen) – Obama 50%, McCain 42%
South Dakota (Rasmussen) – McCain 47%, Obama 43%
Minnesota (Rasmussen) – Obama 54%, McCain 37%
Iowa (Rasmussen) – Obama 51%, McCain 41%
In the movie Signs, the famous line is “Swing away, Merrill.” So, why did I choose this line for today?s theme? Simple… it works on two levels.
1) The trend in polls of key swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa is Obama pulling AWAY in SWING states. These states need to be in Obama’s column for a win in November. In another swing state like Colorado, he has a marginal lead, but it’s been fairly constant at around 5 points.
2) Obama is going to “swing away” at states he should not win, but might! Polling shows he’s got a shot. Look at North Dakota (McCain +1) and South Dakota (McCain +4). South Dakota has voted republican in every presidential election since 1968 and only voted Democrat once since 1940! North Dakota is exactly the same. In 2004, George Bush won South Dakota by 21.47%.
