TWiPoll 2 - Zogby and Barr
This Week in Polls (July 2nd-8th)
It seems like the 4th of July weekend slowed down polling between July 3rd and July 9th. So, most of these polls were released Wednesday and Thursday of last week. Any impact of the Iraq “refinement” feud would not be shown here. However, the nation wide tracking polls have shown no change.
Lousiana (Southern Media & Opinion Research) McCain 52%; Obama 36%
Connecticut (Quinnipiac) – Obama 56%; McCain 35%
Gerogia (Strategic Vision) – McCain 51%; Obama 43%; Barr 3%
Florida (Strategic Vision) – McCain 49%; Obama 41%
Massachusetts (Rasmussen) – Obama 53%; McCain 33%
Connecticut (Rasmussen) – Obama 52%; McCain 35%
Rhode Island (Rhode Island College) – Obama 53%; McCain 25%
Connecticut (Research 2000) - Obama 57%; McCain 35%
New York (Rasmussen) - Obama 60%; McCain 29%
Montana (Rasmussen) – Obama 48%; McCain 43%
Washington (Strategies 360) - Obama 47%; McCain 39%
Georgia (InAdv/PollPosition) - McCain 46%; Obama 44%; Barr (L) 4
Rhode Island (Rasmussen) - Obama 55%; McCain 31%
The only major point from this weeks polls is Montana. All the other polls seem to be par for the course. Montana, though, is a bit interesting. It’s a complete and exact reversal of a month ago. What does this mean? I have no idea. Rasmussen is on my “use with caution” list, so it could just be a bad poll or an outlier. Only time will tell.
Ok, with the officially released polls out of the way, here is the major story of the week to me. Zogby just released a 21 day long polling of all 50 states (or so they say, some states have no data).
Here’s the basics: Obama wins 273-160 with 105 too close to call.
Here’s the big deal: Bob Barr. According to their polls, he pulls anywhere from 4-9% in KEY states including Nevada, Arizona, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Missouri, Ohio, and Indiana. According to their polls in those states, Obama wins thanks to Bob Barr. In some of these swing states, 1 or 2 percent could swing the state one way or the other. Barr pulling 5% is a MAJOR deal.
Key a CLOSE eye on Bob Barr. He very well could be the Ross Perot of 2008.
118 Days Until Election Day
Tags: TWiPoll
Jason's Blog | JasonGrandt | 09 July 2008 |
