Virginia (PPP (D)) - Obama 46%, McCain 44%……. +2.0
Colorado (Rasmussen ) - Obama 50%, McCain 47%……. Obama +3.0
Florida (Rasmussen) - McCain 47%, Obama 49%……. Obama +2.0
Colorado (Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP) - Obama 44%, McCain 46%……. McCain +2.0
Michigan (Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP) - Obama 46%, McCain 42%……. Obama +4.0
Wisconsin (Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP) - Obama 50%, McCain 39%……. Obama +11.0
Minnesota (Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP) - Obama 46%, McCain 44%……. Obama +2.0
Minnesota (Rasmussen) - Obama 52%, McCain 39%……. Obama +13.0
New Jersey (Monmouth Univ.) - Obama 48%, McCain 34%……. Obama +14.0
South Carolina (Research 2000) - McCain 53%, Obama 40%……. McCain +13.0
New Hampshire (Rasmussen) - Obama 49%, McCain 45%……. Obama +4.0
Pennsylvania (Rasmussen) - Obama 51%, McCain 45%……. Obama +6.0
New Mexico (Rasmussen) - Obama 49%, McCain 43%……. Obama +6.0
California (Rasmussen) - Obama 52%, McCain 42%……. Obama +10.0
Mississippi (Research 2000) - McCain 51%, Obama 42%……. McCain +9.0
North Dakota (Research 2000) - McCain 45%, Obama 42%……. McCain +3.0
North Carolina (PPP (D)) - McCain 47%, Obama 44%…….McCain +3.0

Penn is an interesing survey. The Rasmussen poll shows Obama +6 and the Strategic Vision poll shows Obama +9. In 2004, Rasmusseen polls tended to lean in favor of democrats compared to final results and Strategic Vision tended to lean in favor of republicans compared to final results. So, what does this say? Both polls show a strong favor towards Obama. PA might be a lock for Obama.

I am throwing the “Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP” polls out for the time being. 2 of them were way off compared to past polling and other polls conducted at the same time. Note Minnesota where one polls says Obama is up 13, but the Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP poll says he’s only up 2. And, the Colorado poll is also a little off. No poll in recent months has shown McCain AHEAD in Colorado, so I have doubts about that one.

…well, baby Tigger may come earlier than planned.  Baby has dropped REALLY low pretty early and the doctor is worried that I won’t make 36 weeks, which is 2 weeks away!  But, everything should be ok, even if baby is born early.  Overdid myself last weekend with VBS and spent the rest of the week home on the couch.  We’ll reassess with the doctor tomorrow and we may either a) be on official bedrest until the baby is born, or b) doc will decide it’s ok for me to keep working my office job.  We’ll see.

TV’s Craig Furguson:

Barack Obama gave a speech in Germany today in front of 200,000 German people.  They were shouting and screaming. Apparently France surrendered just in case.

Unknown Source:

“So did you hear about Obama’s trip to the Middle East? Apparently he visited the manger where he was born.”

Alabama (AEA/Capital Survey) - McCain 49%, Obama 36%
Kansas (TargetPoint (R)) - McCain 49%, Obama 36%
Missouri (PPP (D)) - McCain 47%; Obama 44%
Missouri (Rasmussen) - McCain 47%; Obama 42%
New Jersey (Rasmussen) - Obama 44%, McCain 39%
Maine (Pan Atlantic SMS) - Obama 37%, McCain 26%
Illinois (Rasmussen) - Obama 52%, McCain 41%
North Dakota (Rasmussen) - McCain 47%, Obama 46%
Wisconsin (Rasmussen) - Obama 52%, McCain 42%
Washington (Rasmussen) - Obama 51%, McCain 43%
Missouri (Research 2000) - McCain 43%, Obama 48%
Louisiana (Rasmussen) - McCain 56%, Obama 37%
Colorado (PPP (D)) - Obama 47%, McCain 43%
Michigan (Rasmussen) - Obama 50%, McCain 42%
South Dakota (Rasmussen) - McCain 47%, Obama 43%
Minnesota (Rasmussen) - Obama 54%, McCain 37%
Iowa (Rasmussen) - Obama 51%, McCain 41%

In the movie Signs, the famous line is “Swing away, Merrill.” So, why did I choose this line for today?s theme? Simple… it works on two levels.

1) The trend in polls of key swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa is Obama pulling AWAY in SWING states. These states need to be in Obama’s column for a win in November. In another swing state like Colorado, he has a marginal lead, but it’s been fairly constant at around 5 points.
2) Obama is going to “swing away” at states he should not win, but might! Polling shows he’s got a shot. Look at North Dakota (McCain +1) and South Dakota (McCain +4). South Dakota has voted republican in every presidential election since 1968 and only voted Democrat once since 1940! North Dakota is exactly the same. In 2004, George Bush won South Dakota by 21.47%.

This Week in Polls (July 2nd-8th)

It seems like the 4th of July weekend slowed down polling between July 3rd and July 9th. So, most of these polls were released Wednesday and Thursday of last week. Any impact of the Iraq “refinement” feud would not be shown here. However, the nation wide tracking polls have shown no change.

Lousiana (Southern Media & Opinion Research) McCain 52%; Obama 36%
Connecticut (Quinnipiac) – Obama 56%; McCain 35%
Gerogia (Strategic Vision) – McCain 51%; Obama 43%; Barr 3%
Florida (Strategic Vision) – McCain 49%; Obama 41%
Massachusetts (Rasmussen) – Obama 53%; McCain 33%
Connecticut (Rasmussen) – Obama 52%; McCain 35%
Rhode Island (Rhode Island College) – Obama 53%; McCain 25%
Connecticut (Research 2000) - Obama 57%; McCain 35%
New York (Rasmussen) - Obama 60%; McCain 29%
Montana (Rasmussen) – Obama 48%; McCain 43%
Washington (Strategies 360) - Obama 47%; McCain 39%
Georgia (InAdv/PollPosition) - McCain 46%; Obama 44%; Barr (L) 4
Rhode Island (Rasmussen) - Obama 55%; McCain 31%

The only major point from this weeks polls is Montana. All the other polls seem to be par for the course. Montana, though, is a bit interesting. It’s a complete and exact reversal of a month ago. What does this mean? I have no idea.  Rasmussen is on my “use with caution” list, so it could just be a bad poll or an outlier. Only time will tell.

Ok, with the officially released polls out of the way, here is the major story of the week to me. Zogby just released a 21 day long polling of all 50 states (or so they say, some states have no data).

Here’s the basics: Obama wins 273-160 with 105 too close to call.
Here’s the big deal: Bob Barr. According to their polls, he pulls anywhere from 4-9% in KEY states including Nevada, Arizona, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Missouri, Ohio, and Indiana. According to their polls in those states, Obama wins thanks to Bob Barr. In some of these swing states, 1 or 2 percent could swing the state one way or the other. Barr pulling 5% is a MAJOR deal.

Key a CLOSE eye on Bob Barr. He very well could be the Ross Perot of 2008.

118 Days Until Election Day

A more detailed explanation:
PickensPlan.com

My mom was finally able to get back to work last week. The water is receding, but the clean-up is a mess! Mud everywhere.  Some bridges were being opened in Iowa City last week, but there are still traffic situations with closed streets and bridges.

…I’ve been thinking about starting a new ministry at church. And I’ve been thinking about it for a long time, but I’m still trying to put the pieces together.

I want to start a group that makes items for babies in the NICU at area hospitals and for families who can’t afford items.  These would especially be things like preemie hats and layettes and blankets, but also some for newborn sizes.  Even isolator covers and positioners. And unfortunately, even burial items for those little ones.  And then I want to take it a step further and buy disposable cameras to give to those parents with babies in NICU and to buy teddy bears for those mothers to take home.  Your arms feel so empty when you have to go home.

And lastly, I want to do something I don’t know if anyone has done: I want to buy teddy bears to give to doctor’s offices, so they can give them to their patients who have lost a child to miscarriage, ectopic or molar pregnancy.  It’s such a dark, empty time and no one seems to recognize your status as a mother.  It helps when you just want to hold on to something and cry and to know someone understands.  And in those cases, there’s almost never something to take home.  Just that empty feeling.

Well, I’ve found patterns and I have the idea. But now I need to talk to Pastor at church and see if people would be interested in joining me or in donating items/money.  And I need to find contacts at area hospitals… Geez, I have a lot to do yet.

I can’t believe we’re this far. Every week seems to be an accomplishment.

The baby is moving some every day, some days a LOT.  It makes me giggle and it helps me feel relaxed that I know it’s doing okay.

Have started our every-two-week doctor visits.  Everything was good this week; the baby had the hiccups when the doctor was listening for the heartbeat.  Sounded very funny!

We’ve signed up for our childbirth and breastfeeding classes, as well as a basic baby care class.  I thought this would help Jason a lot, because he’s never had the chance to take care of a little baby. Should have all of those taken by mid-August.

There are 2 showers being planned at the moment, and a third coming after the baby is born. So many things and so little room to store them in!  We were able to find a lot of things at some garage sales a few weeks ago, so our basics are almost covered.  And my mom’s clothing storage has outfitted us for quite some time.  My one friend is giving me a children’s book shower, which I’m very excited about. I have no books and can’t wait to start reading to the baby, even if they don’t know what I’m saying or what we’re doing yet.  We’re registered at Target and have an online registry (with a lot of retailers) on myregistry.com.

The only thing that I want to do that everyone tells me I’m crazy for even trying is that I want to do cloth diapers (which are not your mama’s diapers anymore! no pins for starters!). But I really want to try.  Mainly because of the environmental impact: I don’t use disposable napkins, kleenexes, anything - why would I use disposable diapers or wipes?  Oh well.  I can always change my mind later, but I really want to try.